Mark Carney: Press conference, Jul 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 67%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Arctic | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 41%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 42%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 37%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 33%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 26%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26JUL08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP