Mark Carney: Interview, May 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the Vancouver Board of Trade?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 66%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Defense / Defence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Housing | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 24%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26MAY20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP