Mark Carney: Remarks, Mar 31, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his announcement?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Arctic | Yes | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Defence / Military | No | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Borealis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tourism / Tourist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 20%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26MAR31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP