Mark Carney: Remarks, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his economic announcement?
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 14%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 14%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26MAY19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP