Mark Carney: Keynote, Apr 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his Liberal Convention Keynote Remarks?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Defense / Defence | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 22%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26APR11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP