Mark Carney: Remarks, Mar 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his military announcement?
Markets
11 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Arctic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innovate / Innovation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Export | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26MAR26B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP