Mark Carney: Remarks, Jul 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Diversity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 46%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 23%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 23%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26JUL01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP