Mark Carney: Press conference, Jun 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his press conference?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense / Defence | Yes | 67%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 65%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 30%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 63%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 21%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26JUN12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP