Mark Carney: Remarks, Jul 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | Yes | 54%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| G7 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 20%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 31%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 10%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26JUL16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP