Mark Carney: Speech, Sep 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly?
Markets
18 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic | No | 68%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 63%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | No | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 55%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 39%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 34%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Lumber | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 28%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 24%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 21%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCARNEYMENTION-26SEP24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP