Donald Trump: Debate, Jun 27, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during the debate?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abortion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Felon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hunter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jail/Prison | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rigged | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crack | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dementia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shark | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-the-debate · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP