Donald Trump: Remarks, May 12, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event on May 12?
Markets
16 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 68%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| India | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drug 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FDA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ozempic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| RFK / Kennedy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pakistan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | Yes | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Governor | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| COVID / Pandemic | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=29 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-medicare-drug-price-plan-event-on-may-12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP