Donald Trump: Keynote, May 24, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his Address at West Point?
Markets
20 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 67%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Duty | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Honor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Legacy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lethal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strongest | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Veteran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bloodbath | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Military Strength | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monken | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Patriotism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Leadership | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke | No | 26%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-2-25MAY24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP