Donald Trump: Speech, Aug 21, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Wednesday speech?
Markets
14 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade Kamala | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War 3 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green New Scam | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelensky | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-wednesday-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP