Will Donald Trump say “Bitcoin”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bitcoin” at 4 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (24%), most recently on Mar 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 1¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Bitcoin
- Probability
- 33% · n=17
- Settled
- 4/17 (24%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Bitcoin |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 31, 2026 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Bitcoin |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Bitcoin | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Bitcoin | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Bitcoin | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Bitcoin”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bitcoin” at 4 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 12, 2024 (24%), most recently on Mar 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Bitcoin” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Bitcoin’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/bitcoin (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=bitcoin · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP