Donald Trump: Monthly window, Aug 1, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say before August 2025?
Coverage
0 known appearancesno known appearances yet Window: Jun 24, 2025 to Aug 1, 2025. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
11 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newscum | Yes | – | 0 | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Rushmore | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reciprocal | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | – | 0 | 38%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | – | 0 | 30%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| America Party | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Diddy | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grok | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Arabian Gulf | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYMAM-25AUG · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP