Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 3, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at today's investment announcement?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Howard / Lutnick | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Arizona | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chip | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TSMC / Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto | Yes | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 61%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gold Card | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ADA / Cardano | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto Reserve / Cryptocurrency Reserve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nanometer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| XRP / Ripple | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ETH / Ethereum | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SOL / Solana | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTINVESTMENT-25MAR03 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP