Donald Trump: Press conference, Aug 15, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Thursday press conference?
Markets
13 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Debate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fire/Fired | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tampon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Couch | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lisp | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-thursday-press-conference · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP