Donald Trump: Interview, Sep 4, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Lex Fridman interview?
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marxist | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IVF | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Censorship | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Civil war | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto | No | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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