Donald Trump: Speech, Jul 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the “Winning the AI Race" event?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Philippines President events on July 22?
Markets
34 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 64%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Plant | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fed / Powell | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden 5+ times | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Autopen | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| All-In | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AMD | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chamath / Palihapitiya | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Electric | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Innovation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palantir | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Revolution | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sacks | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | Yes | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| NVIDIA | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | Yes | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Clarity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GENIUS Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 42%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ethereum | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Surplus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | 38%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| North Korea / Taiwan | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Copper | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 33%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 18%n=114 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP