Donald Trump: Rally, Aug 17, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Saturday rally?
Markets
16 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA | Yes | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fire/Fired | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tampon | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drill baby drill | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Secret Service | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ear 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gag | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Immigration 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Couch | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-saturday-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP