Donald Trump: Monthly window, Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say in January?
Coverage
1 known appearances1 of 1 known appearance transcribed Window: Jan 2, 2026 to Jan 31, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump.
Markets
20 words · 12 settled yes · our count agreed on 11 of 20- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communist | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 49%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Dell computer | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Food stamps | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRx.gov / TrumpRx.com / TrumpRx | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Jerome Too Late Powell | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Breaking News | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rolex | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Skyrocket / Skyrocketed | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| F-47 | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Teleprompter | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ego | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Heart Attack | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Martin Luther King | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Truth Social | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Banana Republic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fuck / Fucking / Fucked | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| N Word | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-in-january · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP