Dan Bongino

Podcasts · Political commentatorsPersonMachine-attributedUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 11:10 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 50 word markets on Dan Bongino’s appearances since 2026, on 27 different words.

History Wall

1–27 of 27, most settled first

Dan Bongino: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Jan 8episode	Feb 3episode	Feb 10episode	Aug 26latest	Last 4	Settled	Probability
Democrat	YSettled yes: Democrat, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Democrat, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Democrat, Feb 10 episode	1 time: Democrat, Aug 26 episode, counts as said	3/475%	3/475%	56%n=3 from settlement history
Trump	YSettled yes: Trump, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Trump, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Trump, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Trump, Aug 26 episode	2/450%	2/450%	56%n=3 from settlement history
Epstein	NSettled no: Epstein, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Epstein, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Epstein, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Epstein, Aug 26 episode	1/425%	1/425%	42%n=3 from settlement history
MAGA / Make America Great Again	NSettled no: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Feb 10 episode	0 times: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Aug 26 episode	1/333%	1/333%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Affordable / Affordability	NSettled no: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 8 episode	NSettled no: Affordable / Affordability, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 26 episode	0/30%	0/30%	33%n=2 from settlement history
America First	NSettled no: America First, Jan 8 episode	NSettled no: America First, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: America First, Feb 10 episode	0 times: America First, Aug 26 episode	0/30%	0/30%	33%n=2 from settlement history
Fraud	–Not listed: Fraud, Jan 8 episode	NSettled no: Fraud, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Fraud, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Fraud, Aug 26 episode	0/30%	0/30%	33%n=2 from settlement history
Crypto / Bitcoin	YSettled yes: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Crypto / Bitcoin, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Aug 26 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	65%n=2 from settlement history
Charlie	YSettled yes: Charlie, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Charlie, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Charlie, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Charlie, Aug 26 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	65%n=2 from settlement history
Grifter / Grifting	YSettled yes: Grifter / Grifting, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Grifter / Grifting, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Grifter / Grifting, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Grifter / Grifting, Aug 26 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	65%n=2 from settlement history
Blackpill / Blackpiller	–Not listed: Blackpill / Blackpiller, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Blackpill / Blackpiller, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Blackpill / Blackpiller, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Blackpill / Blackpiller, Aug 26 episode	1/250%	1/250%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Investigate / Investigated / Investigation	–Not listed: Investigate / Investigated / Investigation, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Investigate / Investigated / Investigation, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Investigate / Investigated / Investigation, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Investigate / Investigated / Investigation, Aug 26 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
J6 / January 6	NSettled no: J6 / January 6, Jan 8 episode	NSettled no: J6 / January 6, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: J6 / January 6, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: J6 / January 6, Aug 26 episode	0/20%	0/20%	33%n=2 from settlement history
Black Pill / Blackpiller / Blackpilled	YSettled yes: Black Pill / Blackpiller / Blackpilled, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Black Pill / Blackpiller / Blackpilled, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Black Pill / Blackpiller / Blackpilled, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Black Pill / Blackpiller / Blackpilled, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Deep State	–Not listed: Deep State, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Deep State, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Deep State, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Deep State, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Economy / Economic	YSettled yes: Economy / Economic, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Economy / Economic, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Economy / Economic, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Economy / Economic, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped	–Not listed: Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped, Feb 3 episode	YSettled yes: Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Kidnap / Kidnapping / Kidnapped, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Maduro / Venezuela	YSettled yes: Maduro / Venezuela, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Ransom	–Not listed: Ransom, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Ransom, Feb 3 episode	YSettled yes: Ransom, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Ransom, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Socialist / Socialism	–Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Feb 10 episode	12 times: Socialist / Socialism, Aug 26 episode, counts as said	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Venezuela	–Not listed: Venezuela, Jan 8 episode	YSettled yes: Venezuela, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Venezuela, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Venezuela, Aug 26 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Bad Bunny	–Not listed: Bad Bunny, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Bad Bunny, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Bad Bunny, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Bad Bunny, Aug 26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin, Aug 26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Election	–Not listed: Election, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Election, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Election, Feb 10 episode	0 times: Election, Aug 26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
ICE / Immigrant / Immigration	–Not listed: ICE / Immigrant / Immigration, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: ICE / Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: ICE / Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 10 episode	0 times: ICE / Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Podcast	–Not listed: Podcast, Jan 8 episode	–Not listed: Podcast, Feb 3 episode	NSettled no: Podcast, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Podcast, Aug 26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Walz	–Not listed: Walz, Jan 8 episode	NSettled no: Walz, Feb 3 episode	–Not listed: Walz, Feb 10 episode	–Not listed: Walz, Aug 26 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Dan Bongino: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/dan-bongino (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/dan-bongino · words: /api/v1/history?entity=dan-bongino · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP