Nick Shirley

Podcasts · Political commentatorsPersonHistory onlyUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 11:57 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 58 word markets on Nick Shirley’s appearances since 2026, on 29 different words; most reliably said: “Learing” (3 of 5).

History Wall

1–29 of 29, most settled first

Nick Shirley: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Jan 20interview	Mar 10interview	Mar 20episode	Mar 26speech	Apr 17latest	Last 5	Settled	Probability
Learing	YSettled yes: Learing, Jan 20 interview	YSettled yes: Learing, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: Learing, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Learing, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Learing, Apr 17 interview	3/560%	3/560%	52%n=4 from settlement history
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	YSettled yes: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Jan 20 interview	YSettled yes: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Apr 17 interview	2/540%	2/540%	46%n=4 from settlement history
Billionnever said	NSettled no: Billion, Jan 20 interview	NSettled no: Billion, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: Billion, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Billion, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Billion, Apr 17 interview	0/50%	0/50%	19%n=4 from settlement history
Trumpnever said	NSettled no: Trump, Jan 20 interview	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Trump, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Trump, Apr 17 interview	0/50%	0/50%	19%n=4 from settlement history
Democrat	–Not listed: Democrat, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Democrat, Mar 10 interview	YSettled yes: Democrat, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Democrat, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Democrat, Apr 17 interview	2/367%	2/367%	34%n=2 from settlement history
Gavin / Newsom	–Not listed: Gavin / Newsom, Jan 20 interview	NSettled no: Gavin / Newsom, Mar 10 interview	YSettled yes: Gavin / Newsom, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Gavin / Newsom, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Gavin / Newsom, Apr 17 interview	2/367%	2/367%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Minnesota / Minneapolis	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Jan 20 interview	YSettled yes: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Apr 17 interview	2/367%	2/367%	44%n=3 from settlement history
Biden	–Not listed: Biden, Jan 20 interview	YSettled yes: Biden, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: Biden, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Biden, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Biden, Apr 17 interview	1/333%	1/333%	40%n=2 from settlement history
Daycare	–Not listed: Daycare, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Daycare, Mar 10 interview	YSettled yes: Daycare, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Daycare, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Daycare, Apr 17 interview	2/2100%	2/2100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
California	NSettled no: California, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: California, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: California, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: California, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: California, Apr 17 interview	1/250%	1/250%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Hospice	–Not listed: Hospice, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Hospice, Mar 10 interview	YSettled yes: Hospice, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Hospice, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Hospice, Apr 17 interview	1/250%	1/250%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Taxpayer	–Not listed: Taxpayer, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Taxpayer, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Taxpayer, Mar 20 episode	NSettled no: Taxpayer, Mar 26 speech	YSettled yes: Taxpayer, Apr 17 interview	1/250%	1/250%	44%n=2 from settlement history
Terrorism / Terrorist	–Not listed: Terrorism / Terrorist, Jan 20 interview	YSettled yes: Terrorism / Terrorist, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: Terrorism / Terrorist, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Terrorism / Terrorist, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Terrorism / Terrorist, Apr 17 interview	1/250%	1/250%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Fraud	–Not listed: Fraud, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Fraud, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Fraud, Mar 20 episode	YSettled yes: Fraud, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Fraud, Apr 17 interview	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Walz / Governor	YSettled yes: Walz / Governor, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Apr 17 interview	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Corrupt / Corruption	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Daycare / Day Care	–Not listed: Daycare / Day Care, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Daycare / Day Care, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Daycare / Day Care, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Daycare / Day Care, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Daycare / Day Care, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Democrat / Left	NSettled no: Democrat / Left, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Democrat / Left, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Democrat / Left, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Democrat / Left, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Democrat / Left, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	–Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ICE / National Guard	NSettled no: ICE / National Guard, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Iran	–Not listed: Iran, Jan 20 interview	NSettled no: Iran, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Iran, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Iran, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Israel / Israeli	–Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jan 20 interview	NSettled no: Israel / Israeli, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Justify / Justified	NSettled no: Justify / Justified, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Justify / Justified, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Justify / Justified, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Justify / Justified, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Justify / Justified, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Mormon	NSettled no: Mormon, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Mormon, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Mormon, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Mormon, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Mormon, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Newsom	–Not listed: Newsom, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Newsom, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Newsom, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Newsom, Mar 26 speech	NSettled no: Newsom, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Race / Racist / Racism	NSettled no: Race / Racist / Racism, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: Race / Racist / Racism, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Race / Racist / Racism, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Race / Racist / Racism, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Race / Racist / Racism, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Walz	–Not listed: Walz, Jan 20 interview	NSettled no: Walz, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: Walz, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: Walz, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: Walz, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
YouTube	NSettled no: YouTube, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: YouTube, Mar 10 interview	–Not listed: YouTube, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: YouTube, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: YouTube, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
YouTube / YouTuber	–Not listed: YouTube / YouTuber, Jan 20 interview	–Not listed: YouTube / YouTuber, Mar 10 interview	NSettled no: YouTube / YouTuber, Mar 20 episode	–Not listed: YouTube / YouTuber, Mar 26 speech	–Not listed: YouTube / YouTuber, Apr 17 interview	0/10%	0/10%	–

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Nick Shirley: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/nick-shirley (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/nick-shirley · words: /api/v1/history?entity=nick-shirley · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP