Steve Bannon
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 44 word markets on Steve Bannon’s appearances since 2025, on 36 different words.
History Wall
1–39 of 39, most settled first| Word | Dec 19 ’25speech | Dec 22remarks | Mar 27 ’26panel | Apr 15latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Biden, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Biden, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Biden, Apr 15 keynote | 1/250% | 1/250% | 33%n=2 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Epstein, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Epstein, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Epstein, Apr 15 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Radical Left | Not listed: Radical Left, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Radical Left, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Radical Left, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Radical Left, Apr 15 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Socialism / Socialist | Not listed: Socialism / Socialist, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Socialism / Socialist, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Socialism / Socialist, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Socialism / Socialist, Apr 15 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Tariff, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Tariff, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 15 keynote | 0/20% | 0/20% | 24%n=2 from settlement history |
| Breitbart | Not listed: Breitbart, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Breitbart, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Breitbart, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Breitbart, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Election, Dec 22 remarks | Settled yes: Election, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Election, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Free Speech / Freedom of Speech, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel | Settled yes: Israel, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Israel, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Israel, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Israel, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Populist / Populism2+ times | Settled yes: Populist / Populism 2+ times, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Populist / Populism 2+ times, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Populist / Populism 2+ times, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Populist / Populism 2+ times, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Prison | Settled yes: Prison, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Prison, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Prison, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Prison, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled yes: Trump, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Trump, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Trump, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump10+ times | Settled yes: Trump 10+ times, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Trump 10+ times, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Trump 10+ times, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Trump 10+ times, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Dec 22 remarks | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Deep State / Administrative State | Settled no: Deep State / Administrative State, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Deep State / Administrative State, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Deep State / Administrative State, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Deep State / Administrative State, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence3+ times | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Alex Jones | Not listed: Alex Jones, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Alex Jones, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Alex Jones, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Alex Jones, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America First | Settled no: America First, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: America First, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: America First, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: America First, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden5+ times | Settled no: Biden 5+ times, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Biden 5+ times, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Biden 5+ times, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Biden 5+ times, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Campaign | Not listed: Campaign, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Campaign, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Campaign, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Campaign, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese / CCP3+ times | Settled no: China / Chinese / CCP 3+ times, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: China / Chinese / CCP 3+ times, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: China / Chinese / CCP 3+ times, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: China / Chinese / CCP 3+ times, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: China / Chinese, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: China / Chinese, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Conspiracy | Not listed: Conspiracy, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Conspiracy, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Conspiracy, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Conspiracy, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Woke / DEI | Not listed: Woke / DEI, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Woke / DEI, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Woke / DEI, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Woke / DEI, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy | Not listed: Economy, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Economy, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Economy, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Economy, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Elon / Musk | Settled no: Elon / Musk, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| EU / Europe / European | Settled no: EU / Europe / European, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: EU / Europe / European, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: EU / Europe / European, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: EU / Europe / European, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ID / Identification | Not listed: ID / Identification, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: ID / Identification, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: ID / Identification, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: ID / Identification, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Illegal Immigrant / Illegal Alien | Settled no: Illegal Immigrant / Illegal Alien, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Illegal Immigrant / Illegal Alien, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Illegal Immigrant / Illegal Alien, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Illegal Immigrant / Illegal Alien, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| JD / Vance | Settled no: JD / Vance, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: JD / Vance, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: JD / Vance, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: JD / Vance, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Luigi / Mangione | Settled no: Luigi / Mangione, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Luigi / Mangione, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Luigi / Mangione, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Luigi / Mangione, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Mamdani / New York | Settled no: Mamdani / New York, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Mamdani / New York, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Mamdani / New York, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Mamdani / New York, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Marxist / Marxism | Settled no: Marxist / Marxism, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Marxist / Marxism, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Marxist / Marxism, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Marxist / Marxism, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Settled no: Working Class / Middle Class, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Working Class / Middle Class, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Working Class / Middle Class, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Working Class / Middle Class, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Peace Through Strength | Not listed: Peace Through Strength, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Peace Through Strength, Dec 22 remarks | Settled no: Peace Through Strength, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Peace Through Strength, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Third Term | Not listed: Third Term, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Settled no: Third Term, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Third Term, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Third Term, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Third World War / World War III | Settled no: Third World War / World War III, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Third World War / World War III, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Third World War / World War III, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Third World War / World War III, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ukraine | Settled no: Ukraine, Dec 19 ’25 speech | Not listed: Ukraine, Dec 22 remarks | Not listed: Ukraine, Mar 27 ’26 panel | Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will Steve Bannon say during Semafor World Economy? | no transcript | 14 | 1 yes · 13 no | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | PanelWhat will Steve Bannon say during his CPAC discussion? | no transcript | 13 | 2 yes · 11 no | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | RemarksWhat will Steve Bannon say during Turning Point America Fest? | no transcript | 13 | 4 yes · 9 no | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | SpeechWhat will Steve Bannon say at AmericaFest on December 19? | no transcript | 19 | 4 yes · 15 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Steve Bannon: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/steve-bannon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/steve-bannon · words: /api/v1/history?entity=steve-bannon · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP