# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-10-01 · 29 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT01 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:39:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-01 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT01 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Lakeland, Florida originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	15	13	0.87	YYYYYnYYYY	5	0	0.75	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	47	36	0.77	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.75	hist	yes
Biden	biden	64	44	0.69	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.69	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	41	27	0.66	nYYYYnnYYY	5	3	0.64	hist	yes
Election	election	35	19	0.54	YnYYYYYYYY	5	1	0.64	hist	yes
Social Security	social security	4	3	0.75	nYYY	5	2	0.63	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	45	24	0.53	YnYYnYYYYn	5	3	0.56	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	33	16	0.48	nYYnYYYYYn	5	3	0.53	hist	yes
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	20	7	0.35	nnnYYnnYYY	5	1	0.53	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	24	10	0.42	nnYYnnYYnY	5	3	0.52	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	43	24	0.56	YYnYYYYYYn	5	3	0.51	hist	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	11	5	0.45	YnYnYnnnYY	5	4	0.49	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	21	14	0.67	YYYnnYnnnY	5	2	0.48	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	18	10	0.56	YYnYnYnYnn	5	2	0.44	hist	no
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	3	1	0.33	nnY	5	2	0.41	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	34	19	0.56	nnYnnYnnYn	5	0	0.39	hist	no
California	california	22	11	0.5	YnnnYnnYnn	5	1	0.36	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	13	3	0.23	YnYnnnnnYn	5	0	0.36	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	29	12	0.41	nnYYnnnnnn	5	3	0.34	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	30	2	0.07	nnnnnnnnYY	5	0	0.32	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	34	11	0.32	nnYYnYnnnn	5	1	0.3	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	16	3	0.19	nnnnYnnnYn	5	1	0.29	hist	no
Food Stamp / SNAP	food stamp|snap	7	1	0.14	nnnnnYn	5	2	0.29	hist	no
America First	america first	43	6	0.14	nYnnnnnnYn	5	0	0.24	hist	no
ICE	ice	5	0	0	nnnnn	5	1	0.24	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	51	9	0.18	YnYnnnnnYn	5	3	0.23	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	12	1	0.08	Ynnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.18	hist	no
Byron / Donalds	byron|donald	0	0			5	0	0.45	prior	yes
DeSantis	desantis	0	0			5	0	0.45	prior	no