Will JD Vance say “Immigrant / Immigration”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Immigrant / Immigration” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Immigrant / Immigration
- Probability
- 39% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of months billions upon billions of dollars of fraud in our hospice system, in our Medicaid system and our Medicare system and our immigration system.
…what we're doing to combat the rampant fraud that exists in our immigration system thanks to failed politicians and thanks to people who allowed the…
…there are various ways in which the Biden administration waved away illegal immigration status. They gave parolees, they gave asylum claims to people who weren't…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Immigrant / Immigration | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Immigrant / Immigration”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Immigrant / Immigration” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Immigrant / Immigration” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Immigrant / Immigration’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/immigrant-or-immigration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=immigrant%20%2F%20immigration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP