# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-01-25 (settled) · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN26 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:06:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-25 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN26 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after Jan 19, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Jan 26, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 1 of 1 known appearance transcribed (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	12	11	0.92	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.82	5	5	yes	1	
New York	new york	25	17	0.68	nYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.8	5	6	yes	1	
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	40	27	0.68	YYnYYYnYYY	1	1	0.78	1	1	yes	1	
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	13	10	0.77	YnYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.73	1	1	yes	1	
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	35	21	0.6	YYYYnnnnYn	1	0	0.73	0	0	no		1
IQ	iq	16	9	0.56	nYnYYYYYYn	1	1	0.73	1	1	yes	1	
Thug	thug	14	10	0.71	nYYnnYnYYY	1	0	0.66	0	0	yes		1
Fake News	fake new	51	27	0.53	YYYnnnYYnn	1	1	0.65	4	4	yes	1	
Olympics	olympic	22	11	0.5	YYYnYYnYYn	1	0	0.65	0	0	yes		1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	21	13	0.62	nYYnYYnnYY	1	0	0.64	0	0	yes		1
Melania	melania	31	17	0.55	YYYYYYnnnn	1	0	0.61	0	0	yes		1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	19	8	0.42	YYYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.61	10	10	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	3	2	0.67	nYY	1	1	0.59	2	2	yes	1	
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	40	22	0.55	nnYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.59	2	2	yes	1	
Newscum	newscum	31	16	0.52	nnnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.58	0	0	yes		1
Maduro	maduro	45	16	0.36	nnYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.57	1	3	yes	1	
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	21	12	0.57	YnYYYYnnnY	1	0	0.56	0	0	yes		1
Transgender	transgender	56	26	0.46	nnnnnYYYnn	1	1	0.56	3	3	yes	1	
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	40	26	0.65	YYYnnYYnnn	1	0	0.54	0	0	no		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	13	6	0.46	YnnnYYYnnn	1	0	0.51	0	0	yes		1
Stimulus / Dividend	dividend|stimulus	12	4	0.33	nnnnYnYYYn	1	1	0.51	3	3	yes	1	
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	26	9	0.35	YnYnnnnnYY	1	1	0.44	2	2	yes	1	
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	242	22	0.09	nnnnnYYnnn	1	0	0.31	0	0	yes		1
Epstein	epstein	57	11	0.19	nnnnYYYnnn	1	0	0.3	0	0	no		1
TikTok	tiktok	45	9	0.2	nYnnnnnnYn	1	0	0.27	0	0	yes		1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	22	3	0.14	nnnnYYnnnn	1	0	0.22	0	0	no		1