# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-01-12 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN12 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:06:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-12 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN12 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Jan 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	10	9	0.9	YnYYYYYYYY	0.79	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	23	15	0.65	YYnYYYYYYY	0.76	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	38	25	0.66	nnYYnYYYnY	0.74	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	33	20	0.61	YnYYYYnnnn	0.72	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	29	17	0.59	YYYYYYYYnn	0.7	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	11	8	0.73	YnYnYYYYnY	0.68	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	47	25	0.53	YnnYYYYnnn	0.66	0	0	yes	1
IQ	iq	14	8	0.57	nnnYnYYYYY	0.65	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	19	11	0.58	YYnYYnYYnn	0.64	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	12	8	0.67	YYnYYnnYnY	0.61	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	9	5	0.56	YnYYnYnnY	0.6	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	11	6	0.55	YYYnnnYYYn	0.6	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	19	11	0.58	nYYnYYYYnn	0.58	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	36	25	0.69	nnYYYYYnnY	0.57	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	17	8	0.47	nYnnnYYYnY	0.55	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	38	20	0.53	YYnnYYYYnY	0.51	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	41	14	0.34	YYYnnnYYYY	0.5	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	29	14	0.48	nYnnnnnYYY	0.49	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	52	24	0.46	YYYnnnnnnY	0.45	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	1	0	0	n	0.44	0	0	yes	1
Stimulus / Dividend	dividend|stimulus	10	3	0.3	nnnnnnYnYY	0.42	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	24	7	0.29	nnYnYnnnnn	0.37	0	0	yes	1
Nine War	nine war	2	0	0	nn	0.37	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	55	11	0.2	nnnnnnYYYn	0.32	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	226	19	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	0.27	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	20	3	0.15	nnnnnnYYnn	0.24	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	43	8	0.19	nnnYnnnnnn	0.22	0	0	yes	1