# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-02-02 (settled) · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB02 · as_of 2026-10-24T09:55:49Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-02 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB02 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before ||date| at 12:00am ET|, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	13	12	0.92	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.84	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	42	29	0.69	nYYYnYYYYY	1	1	0.79	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	14	11	0.79	nYYYYnYYYY	1	1	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	15	11	0.73	YYnnYnYYYY	1	0	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	37	22	0.59	YYnnnnYYnn	1	0	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
IQ	iq	17	10	0.59	YnYYYYYYnY	1	1	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	53	28	0.53	YnnnYYnnYn	1	1	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	22	14	0.64	YYnYYnnYYY	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	23	12	0.52	YYnYYnYYnY	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	4	3	0.75	nYYY	1	1	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	24	10	0.42	nnnYnnnnYn	1	1	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
Cookie	cookie	4	4	1	YYYY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	32	18	0.56	YYYYYnnnnY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	33	18	0.55	nnnYYYYYYY	1	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	23	14	0.61	YYYYnnnYYY	1	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	59	29	0.49	nnYYYYnYYn	1	1	0.59	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	14	7	0.5	nnnYYYnnnY	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	41	26	0.63	YYnnYYnnnn	1	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	27	10	0.37	nYnnnnnYYY	1	1	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator	paid agitator|professional agitator	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	1	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Insurrection Act	insurrection act	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	12	4	0.33	YnnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1
Antifa	antifa	11	2	0.18	Ynnnnnnnnn	1	1	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	253	25	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	59	12	0.2	nnYYYnnnnY	1	0	0.28	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	24	3	0.12	nnYYnnnnnn	1	0	0.21	hist	0	0	no	1
Penguin	penguin	0	0			1	0	0.54	prior	0	0	no	1