# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-12-08 (settled) · 29 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC08 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:39:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-08 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC08 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 8, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	24	15	0.62	YYnYYYYYYn	0.81	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	27	16	0.59	YYYYYYYYnn	0.73	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	27	19	0.7	YnYYYYYYnn	0.71	hist	0	0	no	1
Melania	melania	23	13	0.57	YnYYnYYYYY	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	39	20	0.51	YnnYYYnYnn	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thug	thug	7	5	0.71	YYYYnYn	0.66	hist	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	18	10	0.56	YYnnnYYnYY	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	11	6	0.55	YnnYYYYnYn	0.63	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	6	3	0.5	nYYYnn	0.6	hist	0	0	no	1
BBC	bbc	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	6	4	0.67	YYnYnY	0.58	hist	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	11	3	0.27	nnYYYnnnnn	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	13	7	0.54	YYnYYnnYYn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	22	11	0.5	nnnnnYYnYn	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Hoax	hoax	16	7	0.44	nYYYnnnnYY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Beef	beef	5	2	0.4	nYnnY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stock Market	stock market	20	8	0.4	nnnnnnnYYY	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	18	6	0.33	nYnnnnnnYn	0.47	hist	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	19	5	0.26	YnnYnnnnnn	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	32	15	0.47	YYnnYYYYnn	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	10	4	0.4	YnnYnYYnnn	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	201	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Email	email	3	0	0	nnn	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	43	8	0.19	YYnnnnnnnn	0.31	hist	0	0	no	1
Argentina	argentina	4	0	0	nnnn	0.31	hist	0	0	yes	1
TikTok	tiktok	36	7	0.19	nnnnnnnnnn	0.23	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	13	1	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	0.19	hist	0	0	no	1
Mental Institution	mental institution	0	0			0.52	prior	0	0	yes	1
Sedition	sedition	0	0			0.52	prior	0	0	no	1