# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-12-01 (settled) · 29 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC01 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:27:51Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25DEC01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	22	14	0.64	YYYYnYYYYY	0.82	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.72	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	25	19	0.76	YYYnYYYYYY	0.72	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	22	13	0.59	YnnnYYYYYY	0.71	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	5	3	0.6	nYYYn	0.7	0	0	no	1
Fake News	fake new	36	19	0.53	nYYYnnYYYn	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	20	10	0.5	YYnYnYYnYY	0.67	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	9	5	0.56	nYnnYYYYn	0.66	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	5	3	0.6	YYnYn	0.61	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	17	9	0.53	YYYnnnYYnY	0.6	0	0	yes	1
BBC	bbc	2	1	0.5	nY	0.6	0	0	no	1
Olympics	olympic	7	3	0.43	nnnYYYn	0.6	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	11	6	0.55	nnYYnYYnnY	0.56	0	0	no	1
Manhattan	manhattan	5	3	0.6	YnYnY	0.55	0	0	no	1
Newscum	newscum	20	10	0.5	YYnnnnnYnY	0.55	0	0	no	1
IQ	iq	10	4	0.4	YYnnnnnYnY	0.53	0	0	yes	1
Beef	beef	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.52	0	0	yes	1
Fat Shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	8	3	0.38	YnnYnYnn	0.49	0	0	no	1
Hoax	hoax	14	5	0.36	nnnYYYnnnn	0.47	0	0	yes	1
Email	email	2	0	0	nn	0.46	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	30	14	0.47	YnYYnnYYYn	0.44	0	0	no	1
Maduro	maduro	13	4	0.31	nnYnnYYnnn	0.44	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	195	18	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.42	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	16	5	0.31	nnnYnnnnnn	0.38	0	0	yes	1
Stock Market	stock market	18	6	0.33	nnnnnnnnnY	0.37	0	0	yes	1
Argentina	argentina	3	0	0	nnn	0.35	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	41	7	0.17	YYYnnnnnnn	0.32	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	35	7	0.2	nnnnnnnnnn	0.24	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	11	1	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.21	0	0	no	1