# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-03-19 · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR19 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:06:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-19 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR19 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	12	9	0.75	YnYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.66	hist
Trump	trump	44	25	0.57	nYYnYYYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	10	7	0.7	nYYnYnYYYY	1	1	0.57	hist
Iran	iran	76	50	0.66	nYYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.56	hist
Biden	biden	207	143	0.69	YnnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.55	hist
China	china	129	84	0.65	YYnYYnYYYY	1	1	0.55	hist
Shinzo / Abe	abe|shinzo	2	2	1	YY	1	0	0.54	hist
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	14	8	0.57	nYYnYYnYYY	1	0	0.52	hist
Oil	oil	49	23	0.47	YYYnnYYYYn	1	1	0.5	hist
Steel	steel	9	7	0.78	YYYYnnYYY	1	1	0.48	hist
Invested / Investment	invested|investment	24	13	0.54	YYnYnYnYnn	1	1	0.48	hist
Korea	korea	3	2	0.67	nYY	1	1	0.47	hist
Hottest	hottest	173	92	0.53	YnYnnYnnnn	1	1	0.47	hist
Stock Market	stock market	50	27	0.54	nYYnYnnYnn	1	1	0.46	hist
Excursion	excursion	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.44	hist
First Term	first term	2	1	0.5	nY	1	1	0.43	hist
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	28	11	0.39	YYYnnYYnnn	1	1	0.41	hist
Sushi	sushi	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.4	hist
Toyota	toyota	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.36	hist
Pearl Harbor	pearl harbor	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.36	hist
Ballroom	ballroom	36	10	0.28	YnYnnnnnnY	1	0	0.31	hist
Taiwan	taiwan	11	2	0.18	YnnnnYnnnn	1	0	0.31	hist
Kim Jong Un / Rocket Man	kim jong un|rocket man	0	0			1	0	0.3	hist
Hormuz	hormuz	14	3	0.21	nYnnnYYnnn	1	0	0.26	hist
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	310	30	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.04	hist
Baseball	baseball	0	0			1	1	0.41	prior