Will Donald Trump say “JD Vance”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “JD Vance” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 6, 2024 (25%), most recently on Oct 6, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
JD Vance
- Probability
- 48% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the war on corruption and fraud led by our great vice president, JD Vance. We will pass the No Invasion of Our Country Act, prohibiting…
…head of the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, Vice President JD Vance, who's been amazing. He's done a fantastic job along with FTC…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “JD Vance”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “JD Vance” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 6, 2024 (25%), most recently on Oct 6, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “JD Vance” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘JD Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/jd-vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=jd%20vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP