# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-10-29 · 27 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT29B · as_of 2026-10-24T11:48:27Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-29 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT29B ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Keynote Remarks at APEC CEOs Luncheon, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
China	china	1	47	40	0.85	YYnYYYYYYY	0.71	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	82	66	0.8	YYnYYYYnnn	0.71	hist	yes
Election	election	1	20	14	0.7	nYYYnYYYnn	0.58	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	47	31	0.66	nYnYYYnnnY	0.57	hist	yes
Border	border	1	46	30	0.65	YnnYYnYYnn	0.57	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	41	25	0.61	YYnYnYnYnY	0.56	hist	yes
Energy	energy	1	22	14	0.64	YnnYYnYYnn	0.51	hist	yes
Middle East	middle east	1	9	5	0.56	nnYYYYYnn	0.51	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.5	hist	yes
Russia	russia	1	40	23	0.57	nYYYYYYnnn	0.44	hist	yes
Putin	putin	1	49	30	0.61	nnnnYYYnnn	0.43	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	30	14	0.47	nnnnYnYYnn	0.43	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	0	0			0.42	hist	yes
Tariff (3+ times)	tariff#3	3	5	4	0.8	YYnYY	0.41	hist	yes
Japan	japan	1	8	5	0.62	YYnnYYYn	0.41	hist	yes
Investment	investment	1	14	5	0.36	YYnnnnYnnn	0.4	hist	yes
Nvidia	nvidia	1	7	3	0.43	nnYYnnY	0.39	hist	yes
Trade Deal	trade deal	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.38	hist	yes
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	1	9	3	0.33	nYnnYYnnn	0.38	hist	yes
Oil / Gas	gas|oil	1	0	0			0.38	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.37	hist	yes
Hyundai	hyundai	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.35	hist	yes
Samsung	samsung	1	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Kim / Jong Un	jong un|kim	1	0	0			0.32	hist	yes
Nobel	nobel	1	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.23	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	155	11	0.07	nnYYYnnnnn	0.18	hist	no
Best Economy / Greatest Economy	best economy|greatest economy	1	0	0			0.36	prior	no