# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-28 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT28 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:49:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-28 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT28 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Bilateral Meeting with the Prime Minister of Japan, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	81	66	0.81	YYYnYYYYnn	0.79	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	46	37	0.8	YYYYYYYYYn	0.77	hist	no
Disaster	disaster	4	4	1	YYYY	0.66	hist	no
Election	election	19	14	0.74	YnYYYnYYYn	0.66	hist	no
Middle East	middle east	8	5	0.62	nnYYYYYn	0.62	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	38	23	0.61	nnYYYnYnYn	0.6	hist	no
Border	border	45	30	0.67	YYnnYYnYYn	0.59	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	45	30	0.67	YYnYnYYYnn	0.59	hist	no
Energy	energy	21	14	0.67	YYnnYYnYYn	0.58	hist	no
Russia	russia	39	23	0.59	nnYYYYYYnn	0.53	hist	no
Drug	drug	14	8	0.57	YYYYnnYYnn	0.53	hist	no
Soybean	soybean	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	no
Nippon	nippon	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	29	14	0.48	nnnnnYnYYn	0.46	hist	no
Crime	crime	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	0.46	hist	no
Shinzo / Abe	abe|shinzo	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
Putin	putin	48	30	0.62	nnnnnYYYnn	0.43	hist	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	8	3	0.38	nYnnYYnn	0.42	hist	no
Farmer	farmer	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.4	hist	no
Investment	investment	13	5	0.38	YYYnnnnYnn	0.39	hist	no
Vietnam	vietnam	0	0			0.39	hist	no
Water	water	13	4	0.31	YnnYYnnnnn	0.32	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	152	11	0.07	nnnnnYYYnn	0.18	hist	no
Toyota	toyota	0	0			0.42	prior	no