# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-16 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT16 · as_of 2026-10-24T22:25:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-16 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Ballroom Dinner on October 15th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	68	56	0.82	YnYYYYnYYY	0.82	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	38	30	0.79	nYYYnnYYYY	0.74	hist	yes
China	china	38	32	0.84	nnYYYYYnYY	0.71	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	15	12	0.8	nYYYYYYYYY	0.68	hist	no
Border	border	35	24	0.69	YnYYYYYYYn	0.65	hist	yes
Election	election	14	11	0.79	nYnYYYnYYY	0.64	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	24	17	0.71	YYnYYYYYYY	0.63	hist	yes
Radical Left	radical left	8	6	0.75	YYYYnYnY	0.61	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	13	9	0.69	YYYYYYYYnY	0.6	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.49	hist	no
Economy	economy	9	5	0.56	YYnnnYYnY	0.48	hist	yes
250	250	0	0			0.47	hist	yes
Low IQ	low iq	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.46	hist	no
Kamala	kamala	11	6	0.55	nYnnYYYnYY	0.46	hist	no
Middle East	middle east	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.45	hist	yes
Golden Age	golden age	7	5	0.71	YnYYYYn	0.43	hist	no
Dead Country	dead country	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.43	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	23	13	0.57	nYnYnnnnYn	0.4	hist	yes
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Nobel Peace Prize	nobel peace prize	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.36	hist	no
Woke	woke	20	4	0.2	nnnnYnnYnY	0.36	hist	no
America First	america first	11	6	0.55	YnYYYYnnnn	0.35	hist	no
Antifa	antifa	7	2	0.29	YYnnnnn	0.34	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	138	8	0.06	YYYnnnnnnn	0.12	hist	no
Donor	donor	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Olympic	olympic	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Operation Summer Heat	operation summer heat	0	0			0.42	prior	no