# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-12 · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC12 · as_of 2026-10-24T04:04:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-12 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC12 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of remarks at the Congressional Ball, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Trillion	trillion	36	27	0.75	YYnYnYYYYY	0.73	yes
Biden	biden	125	95	0.76	YYYYnnnnYY	0.68	yes
Tariff	tariff	85	60	0.71	YYYnnnnnYY	0.67	yes
250 / Olympics	250|olympic	2	2	1	YY	0.6	no
Hottest	hottest	91	51	0.56	YYYYYYYYnY	0.6	yes
China	china	81	58	0.72	nYnYYnnnnY	0.59	no
Hoax	hoax	19	10	0.53	YnnnnYYYYY	0.57	no
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	29	18	0.62	YYYYYYYnnY	0.56	no
Election	election	46	28	0.61	YYYYnnYYYn	0.53	no
Hanukkah	hanukkah	2	2	1	YY	0.52	yes
ICE / Border Patrol	border patrol|ice	1	1	1	Y	0.52	no
Merry Christmas	merry christma	1	1	1	Y	0.52	yes
Supreme Court	supreme court	11	4	0.36	nnnYnYnYYn	0.49	no
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	13	8	0.62	nYYYYnYYnY	0.48	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	21	9	0.43	nnYnnnnYYY	0.48	no
Eight War	eight war	13	7	0.54	YYnnnYnnnY	0.44	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	15	8	0.53	YnYnYnnnYY	0.44	no
Investment	investment	48	21	0.44	nnnnYnnnnn	0.39	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	20	6	0.3	nnYnnnYnnn	0.31	yes
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	2	0	0	nn	0.29	no
America First	america first	17	7	0.41	nnnnnnnYnn	0.24	no
Maduro	maduro	21	5	0.24	nYnnnnnnnn	0.2	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	204	19	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.08	no