# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-04 · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC04 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:11:44Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-04 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC04 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Announcement on December 3rd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	76	56	0.74	YnYnnYYnYY	0.72	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	33	24	0.73	YYYYYnYnYY	0.69	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	44	32	0.73	YnYYYYYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	24	15	0.62	nnYYYYYYYY	0.65	hist	no
China	china	75	56	0.75	YnYYYnnYnY	0.64	hist	yes
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	26	19	0.73	YYnYYYYYYn	0.56	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	83	44	0.53	YnnnnYYYYY	0.56	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	37	20	0.54	YYYnnYYYnY	0.5	hist	no
Investment	investment	43	21	0.49	nYYYYnnnnY	0.47	hist	no
Climate Change	climate change	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	no
Mexico	mexico	10	7	0.7	YYnYYnYYYn	0.44	hist	yes
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	17	6	0.35	nnYYnnYnnn	0.44	hist	no
Hoax	hoax	15	6	0.4	nnYYYnnnnY	0.43	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	9	5	0.56	nYnYYYnYn	0.42	hist	yes
EV / Electric	electric|ev	0	0			0.41	hist	yes
Autopen	autopen	25	11	0.44	nnnnnnYnYY	0.4	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	11	3	0.27	nYnYYnnnnn	0.34	hist	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	yes
Maduro	maduro	17	5	0.29	nYYnnYnnnn	0.26	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	24	10	0.42	nYnYnnnnYn	0.25	hist	yes
Battery	battery	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Butcher	butcher	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Credit	credit	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Emission	emission	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
November 5	november 5	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Penalty	penalty	0	0			0.41	prior	no