Will Donald Trump say “Climate Change”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Climate Change” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 16, 2025 (33%), most recently on Nov 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Climate Change
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in 12 years because of global warming, a name since reborn to climate change because the planet was cooling, not warming, and nobody was dead.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Climate Change |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Climate Change | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Climate Change |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Climate Change”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Climate Change” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 16, 2025 (33%), most recently on Nov 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Climate Change” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Climate Change’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/climate-change (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=climate%20change · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP