# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-05-01 · 39 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY01 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-university-of-alabama-commencement-speech-on-may-1 · as_of 2026-10-27T03:01:51Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-05-01 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of the University of Alabama Class of 2025 Commencement Keynote Address, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-his-university-of-alabama-commencement-speech-on-may-1 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
China	china	1	K	14	12	0.86	YnYnYYYYYY	0.58	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	18	13	0.72	nYnnYYYnYY	0.52	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	1	P	8	6	0.75	YYnYYnYY	0.47	hist	yes
Hell 3+ times	hell#3	3	P	9	6	0.67	YYnYnYYYn	0.47	hist	yes
Women's Sports	women's sport	1	P	11	9	0.82	YYYYYYYYYn	0.46	hist	yes
Border	border	1	K	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.45	hist	yes
Kamala	kamala	1	K	8	4	0.5	nnYnnYYY	0.44	hist	no
Plant	plant	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	yes
Judge	judge	1	P	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.41	hist	yes
Beautiful 3+ times	beautiful#3	3	P	2	1	0.5	nY	0.4	hist	yes
Joe / Biden 3+ times	biden|joe#3	3	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.4	hist	yes
Crime	crime	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.39	hist	no
Hamas	hama	1	K	8	4	0.5	YYnnYnnY	0.38	hist	no
Dog	dog	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.38	hist	yes
Israel	israel	1	K	23	14	0.61	nnYnYnnnnn	0.37	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	1	K	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.36	hist	yes
DEI / Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion	dei|diversity equity and inclusion	1	K	5	2	0.4	nnYYn	0.35	hist	no
Friend of Mine	friend of mine	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Woke	woke	1	K	8	1	0.12	nnnYnnnn	0.26	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	85	3	0.04	nnnnnnYnnn	0.19	hist	no
America 10+ times	america#10	10	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Brilliant	brilliant	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Career	career	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Child	child	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Coal	coal	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Future	future	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Georgia	georgia	1	P	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Ainsworth	ainsworth	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Antisemitism	antisemitism	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Crimson	crimson	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Election	election	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Freedom	freedom	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Roll Tide	roll tide	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Saban	saban	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Student Loan	student loan	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Success	success	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Tuberville	tuberville	1	K	0	0			0.34	prior	yes