Will Donald Trump say “Success”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Success” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 1, 2025.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Success
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 4 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
tariffs and record setting economic success. But the Democrats policies are so bad that they won't allow this to happen. It's the exact opposite. If…
…all done. And if we did nothing else, we had a great success. We put That's why we call it the great big be. It's…
…tariffs. That's us, Republicans, and setting every record, record after record, economic success, the likes of which our country has never seen before. When you…
…at the National Design Studio. Everything Joe's done has been a big success for us. So, here's what we're going to be doing. Anybody that…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2025 | Success |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Success”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Success” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 1, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Success” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Success’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/success (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=success · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP