Will Donald Trump say “Dog”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dog” at 5 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 12, 2024 (38%), most recently on Jun 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Dog
- Probability
- 49% · n=13
- Settled
- 5/13 (38%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…a Republican and he was thrown out of the party like a dog. We threw him the hell out. He was terrible. No, he was…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dog |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (35 of 47 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Dog | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Dog | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Dog |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 31, 2026 | Dog | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Dog | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Dog | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Dog | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Dog | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Dog | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Dog | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2025 | Dog | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Dog | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 12, 2024 | Dog | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Dog”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Dog” at 5 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 12, 2024 (38%), most recently on Jun 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Dog” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Dog’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/dog (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=dog · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP