# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · briefing 2025-08-11 · 39 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG11 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 · as_of 2026-10-25T07:51:45Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-08-11 · tn/th blank: no briefing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG11 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Press Conference on Crime and Beautification on August 11, at 10:00 A.M. EST in the Press Briefing Room, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-dc-crime-press-conference-on-august-11 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	42	34	0.81	YYYYYYYYYY	0.7	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	5	4	0.8	YYYYn	0.52	hist	yes
Beautiful	beautiful	1	K	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.52	hist	yes
Radical	radical	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	0.51	hist	yes
Border	border	1	K	20	13	0.65	YYYnnnnYYn	0.5	hist	yes
Putin	putin	1	K	26	18	0.69	YYYnnYnnYn	0.49	hist	yes
Peace	peace	1	K	11	7	0.64	nYYYnYYYnn	0.49	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Autopen	autopen	1	P	13	7	0.54	nYnYYYnnnY	0.46	hist	yes
Mexican / Mexico	mexican|mexico	1	P	0	0			0.46	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	20	10	0.5	YnnnYYYnnn	0.44	hist	no
Fed / Federal Reserve	fed|federal reserve	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.44	hist	no
Ballroom	ballroom	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	yes
Graffiti	graffiti	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	yes
ICE / Immigration and Customs Enforcement	ice|immigration and customs enforcement	1	K	0	0			0.43	hist	yes
Joe / Biden 5+ times	biden|joe#5	5	P	10	6	0.6	YYnYYYYnnn	0.42	hist	yes
Insane Asylum	insane asylum	1	K	5	2	0.4	YnnYn	0.41	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	P	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.4	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	1	P	2	1	0.5	nY	0.4	hist	yes
CNN	cnn	1	K	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.38	hist	no
DEI / Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion	dei|diversity equity and inclusion	1	K	7	2	0.29	nnYYnnn	0.37	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	45	13	0.29	nnnYnYnYYn	0.36	hist	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times	billion|million|trillion#7	7	P	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.36	hist	yes
MSDNC	msdnc	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.35	hist	no
DOGE	doge	1	P	9	1	0.11	nnnYnnnnn	0.32	hist	yes
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	107	5	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.12	hist	no
CDC / Centers for Disease Control	cdc|centers for disease control	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Homeless	homeless	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Low IQ / Low-IQ	low iq	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Make America Safe Again	make america safe again	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Mr. Nice Guy	mr nice guy	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
New York	new york	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Renovation	renovation	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Subway	subway	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Tent	tent	1	K	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Big Balls / Coristine	big ball|coristine	1	P	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Crime 10+	crime#10	10	P	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Federalize	federalize	1	P	0	0			0.39	prior	no
Thug / Cartel	cartel|thug	1	P	0	0			0.39	prior	yes