Will Donald Trump say “Thug / Cartel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Thug / Cartel” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 11, 2025.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Thug / Cartel
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…it's schools. It's schools. I'm looking at some of these guys, these thugs. They're not students. It's illegal immigration is what it is. It's people…
…I don't understand it. We conducted large numbers of military strikes to smash the drug cartels and we brought the flow of deadly drugs coming
We conducted large numbers of military strikes to smash the drug cartels. And we brought the flow of deadly drugs coming in by ocean and…
…of this region to be dominated by vicious gangs and bloodthirsty drug cartels, destabilized by uncontrolled migration and infiltrated by hostile foreign adversaries, foreign sick,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2025 | Thug / Cartel |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Thug / Cartel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Thug / Cartel” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 11, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Thug / Cartel” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Thug / Cartel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cartel-or-thug (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cartel%20%2F%20thug · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP