Will Donald Trump say “Insane asylum”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Insane asylum” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (44%), most recently on Jan 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Insane asylum
- Probability
- 47% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Insane asylum |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Insane Asylum | Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Insane asylum | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Insane Asylum |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Insane asylum | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Insane Asylum | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Insane Asylum | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Insane Asylum | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Insane Asylum | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Insane asylum”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Insane asylum” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (44%), most recently on Jan 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Insane asylum” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Insane asylum’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/insane-asylum (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=insane%20asylum · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP