Will Donald Trump say “Granite / Marble”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Granite / Marble” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (50%), most recently on Apr 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Granite / Marble
- Probability
- 37% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…know, little ding ding ding ding ding. You know, you buy the marble. It's about It's about a half an inch thick like this. Bing…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Granite / Marble |  Kalshi | No | – |
| May 3, 2026 | Marble / Granite |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Granite / Marble”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Granite / Marble” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 3, 2026 (50%), most recently on Apr 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Granite / Marble” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Granite / Marble’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/granite-or-marble (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=granite%20%2F%20marble · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP