White House press briefing transcript, Jan 7, 2026 (Leavitt)
At the White House press briefing on Jan 7, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said 14 of the 35 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 34 of 35 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
35 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 34 of 35- Kalshi: role: press secretary
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 14 | 22 | ✓ | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 11 | 32 | ✓ | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 7 | 10 | ✓ | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 3 | 21 | ✓ | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 2 | 9 | ✓ | 61%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 43%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 80%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| New York / Mayor | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FBI | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | Yes | 1 | 7 | ✓ | 19%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 0 | 8 | ✗ | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 69%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 66%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Christmas | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Baby / Pregnant | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beef | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Learing | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nigeria | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shirley | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 24%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 14%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
172 passages · part 2 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara (presidency.ucsb.edu); White House transcript, public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
“Processed” appears in part 1.
Questions and answers
Did you see his statement earlier today? He said, "We will always be there for NATO even if they are not there for us." And I think that answers your question directly. Yes.
Just to follow up on what Jeff was saying there, will the president commit that if any NATO members are attacked, the United States would [inaudible 01: 11: 09]
Again, the president addressed this directly himself this morning after seeing the coverage from all of you in this room on television and he made it very clear. We're always going to be there for NATO, even if they have not done right by the United States of America. And they have finally increased their defense spending at the request of this president, but it was only because of this president that they did that. Take a couple more. Michael, go ahead.
Thank you, Karoline. Happy New Year. Congratulations.
Thank you. You too.
So two questions. One on healthcare, one on Mexico. On healthcare, president says he wants Republicans to be flexible on the Hyde Amendment in order to pass healthcare legislation. What is the White House's message to pro-life voters who say federal funding for abortion goes against their values?
Well, the president did not change the administration's policy. It was President Trump who signed an executive order protecting the Hyde Amendment. It's the Trump administration that has taken multiple actions on various fronts to ensure that taxpayer dollars are not funding the practice of abortion. What the president was saying yesterday was Republicans and frankly, Democrats too, need to show a little bit more flexibility so we can actually get something done with respect to the issue of healthcare. Republicans have amazing ideas. The president himself, as we spoke about earlier, has launched this most favored nation drug pricing initiative, has cut good deals with big pharma. He wants to see Republicans and Democrats too, if they're willing, codify those executive orders into law so that these good deals can remain and these prices can continue to be lowered long after this president and this deal maker in chief is gone.
President's talked a lot about health savings accounts and giving more money back to the healthcare consumer rather than to these giant insurance companies. And he's been very outspoken and tough on them too. And I think you'll see more and hear more from him directly on that issue. So he wants to see Congress get something done with respect to healthcare, and that was the point that he was driving home yesterday.
Karoline, President Trump says the drug cartels are running Mexico. What action does he need to see Mexico's President, Claudia Sheinbaum take to prove that she's in control of that country, in control of those cartels? And does the White House believe she's able to do that without US intervention?
Look, I think the president was speaking very candidly and frankly about the reality on the ground in Mexico. Haley.
Karoline, happy new year.
Thanks, you too.
I wanted to ask you about the seized tanker, the Bella. There were reports before this that Russia had sent a submarine to assort it. Was there any engagement with that submarine? And then was the deconfliction aligned with Russia used ahead of boarding that?
Again, this was a Venezuelan shadow fleet vessel that has transported sanctioned oil. The vessel was deemed stateless after flying a false flag and it had a judicial seizure order. And that's why the crew will be subject to prosecution. Mary.
Thanks Karoline. On Columbia, the president talked in the week and suggested that he'd be open to an operation there. Should the president of Columbia be expecting Delta force anytime soon? And then I have another one for you on California.
That would be a very unwise question for me to answer, to weigh into. What's your next question?
On California, can you share any more about the fraud investigation? The president said that there was one. Who's being investigated and where is it starting?
Again, this is going to be a all hands on deck government-wide effort. The president has directed all agencies across the board to look at federal spending programs in not just Minnesota, but also in the state of California to identify fraud and to prosecute to the fullest extent of the law, all those who have committed it. Take one more. Sure.
Thank you. Karoline, yesterday was the five-year anniversary of January 6th. Democrats and mainstream media continued to push their big lie that it was an insurrection and that police officers died that day. The reality is that four Trump supporters died on January 6th and two women were killed by January 6th police. Everybody knows Ashli Babbitt was shot in cold blood by Capitol Police Officer Michael Byrd, but there was another woman. Her name was Rosanne Boyland from Georgia, and she was pepper balled, gassed, and ultimately truly beaten with a stick by January 6th police officer, Lila Morris. The Biden administration and mainstream media lied and told Americans Rosanne Boyland died of a drug overdose on Capitol steps. Her family is now asking for an investigation. Is the administration aware of the circumstances of her death and will there be an investigation finally?
Well, for an investigation, I will have to defer you to either the FBI or the Department of Justice, and I'm sorry to have to do that. But with respect to all of the facts that you just laid out, the White House relished the opportunity yesterday to actually create a new website to share the facts with the American public, but also all those in this room. We knew the media would be covering January 6th quite a bit because they think it's something that the American people are still believing their lies on. They think it's something that still helps their case against this president, obviously not, or else he wouldn't have been reelected in an overwhelming fashion in November of last year. And so I would encourage everyone to take a look at that website. It's quite well done and thank you all very much. It's great to be back with you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Karoline.
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