White House press briefing transcript, Oct 23, 2025
Kalshi and Polymarket listed 57 words for the White House press briefing on Oct 23, 2025; 56 have settled so far, 28 of them Yes. Parrot’s count agreed with 41 of 41 checked settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
UpdatedMarkets
57 words · 28 settled yes · our count agreed on 41 of 41- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Kalshi: role: press secretary Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President 70+ times | Yes | 80 | 117 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President 80+ times | Yes | 80 | 117 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down 10+ times | Yes | 11 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 62%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Health 7+ times | Yes | 8 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | 7 | 9 | ✓ | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 79%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 6 | 15 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| East Wing | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 60%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Drug | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| War | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon / Pardons / Pardoned | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 44%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Hostage | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean CR / Clean Continuing Resolution | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Schumer | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 25 or above | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 30 or above | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Above 10 minutes | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Above 15 minutes | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Above 20 minutes | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Above 25 minutes | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Above 30 minutes | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Above 5 minutes | Yes | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Trump 20+ times | No | 7 | 18 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 7+ times | No | 4 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 58%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Portland | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lunatic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renovation | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Guard | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hispanic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Medicare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stupid Question | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| October 7 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 35 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 40 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 45 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 55 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 60 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| 65 or above | No | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| Democrat Shutdown | open | 1 | 1 | – | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
151 passages · part 2 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara (presidency.ucsb.edu); White House transcript, public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
Thank you. Thank you, Karoline.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/white-house-press-briefing:2025-10-23:briefing · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=white-house-press-briefing:2025-10-23:briefing · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP