Will “War” be said at the next White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “War” was said at the White House press briefing on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 6, 2025 (100%), most recently on Nov 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: press secretary
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
White House press briefing
War
- Probability
- 48% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 press briefings
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: role: press secretary
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
The president also announced the Department of War has officially selected Cleveland, Ohio as the new home for the US Navy's Submarine Component Repair Center.…
I'd like to ask you about the Iran war and about Anthony Fauci. On the Iran war, Congressman Thomas Massie today introduced articles of impeachment…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…good friend of mine, and I think he's an amazing Secretary of War. And, um, you know, fundamentally where I -- look, there are a…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…has said, as I speak on his behalf, and the investigation continues and we would refer you to the Department of War for further questions.
…the conflict. Oil prices are down nearly at their level from the pre-war conflict. Gas prices dropped below $4 a gallon today for the first…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “War” said at the White House press briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “War” was said at the White House press briefing on 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 6, 2025 (100%), most recently on Nov 4, 2025.
- What is the probability “War” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.
Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘War’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP